INVESTIGATION 03 · NEW ASTEROIDS

Asteroid Watch

Which of the new candidates on the Minor Planet Center's confirmation page are real near-Earth objects? A ranking, updated twice a day. Latest capture: 13 Oct 2026, 00:08 UTC.

START HERE

The live queue in three questions.
01 · RIGHT NOWWhich candidates are most likely real?Top of the ranking: CEWH582 (0.93), 6K72D21 (0.90), CEV1Y22 (0.90).See the ranked queue → 02 · WHEREWhere are they in the sky?108 candidates on the confirmation page; 108 still need follow-up observations.Open the sky map → 03 · HOW SURECan this ranking be trusted?Tested on candidates it had never seen, with its errors counted and its limits stated.Read the evaluation →

IN PLAIN WORDS

Every night, survey telescopes flag possible new near-Earth asteroids and post them to the NEO Confirmation Page. Astronomers must observe them again within days, or their orbits become too uncertain and they are lost. Only about half turn out to be real; the rest are camera artifacts, satellites, stars or ordinary main-belt asteroids.

The ranking puts the likeliest real ones first, so scarce telescope time goes where it matters. P(real NEO) is the chance a candidate is a genuine near-Earth object, not the chance of hitting Earth. No candidate here has an impact assessment; known impact risks are in NASA's Sentry table further down.

108
candidates on the page now
captured 13 Oct 2026, 00:08 UTC · rescored twice a day
0.93
ROC-AUC on later candidates
digest2 alone 0.70 · tested on 344 candidates posted after 2026-09-19, trained on 1031 earlier ones
39%
junk excluded at ≥99% NEO recall
same test · digest2 alone 25% · benchmark 80%
1375
model trained on
labeled candidates · last retrained 12 Oct 2026 · retrained every Monday
3368
outcomes archived
since 2026-05-16
LIVE · THE RANKING

The confirmation queue, ranked

BEFORE YOU ACT ON THIS RANKING

Full evaluation →
#?desig?P(real NEO)?follow-up?~size?digest2?V?H?obs?arc d?unseen d?
1CEWH582
0.93
Needs follow-up135 m10021.122.1130.160.169
26K72D21
0.90
Needs follow-up12 m9820.827.3120.130.166
3CEV1Y22
0.90
Needs follow-up12 m9822.027.380.130.143
4CEWQPT2
0.89
Needs follow-up141 m ▲10021.222.070.10.1
5gb00874
0.89
Needs follow-up31 m9819.225.390.120.015
6Sar2949
0.89
Needs follow-up26 m10020.025.7150.050.122
7CEW2VG2
0.89
Needs follow-up2 m9821.031.5130.090.132
8C1GKEN5
0.89
Needs follow-up27 m10021.925.680.040.027
9CEWQ9D2
0.88
Needs follow-up178 m ▲9820.621.590.130.081
10C1GVTW5
0.88
Needs follow-up10 m9822.727.880.110.115
11C1GR0W5
0.87
Needs follow-up15 m9921.726.9100.070.125
12C1GUXM5
0.87
Needs follow-up74 m10022.423.470.040.022
13C1GGUC5
0.86
Needs follow-up17 m10023.026.680.060.149
14C1GK9J5
0.84
Needs follow-up8 m10022.328.260.050.049
15gb00873
0.84
Needs follow-up1 m9819.332.090.140.019
16P12rfh9
0.84
Needs follow-up78 m10021.823.360.060.365
17P22rf9Z
0.84
Needs follow-up49 m10020.924.330.040.374
18C1GTPF5
0.82
Needs follow-up3 m10022.630.470.060.08
19P12rffl
0.81
Needs follow-up162 m ▲10020.121.730.030.122
20C1GWWQ5
0.81
Needs follow-up20 m9722.426.280.080.061
21XL1011E
0.81
Needs follow-up26 m9819.025.750.670.02
22P12qRD2
0.80
Needs follow-up107 m9622.122.660.10.334
23P22rf9X
0.78
Needs follow-up135 m10021.722.140.040.376
24TKO0004
0.77
Needs follow-up27 m9317.725.6160.650.094
25P22rdm1
0.77
Needs follow-up30 m10021.125.430.010.136
26P12rdpK
0.72
Needs follow-up62 m10020.423.830.020.088
27P22rfcq
0.71
Needs follow-up295 m ▲9721.620.430.020.385
28C1GLQL5
0.70
Needs follow-up214 m ▲9922.321.160.050.033
29P22pKXS
0.70
Needs follow-up148 m ▲10021.421.930.030.381
30P22rdnk
0.68
Needs follow-up98 m9921.522.830.020.097
31P12r97j
0.68
Needs follow-up162 m ▲10021.321.750.080.279
32P22oVrz
0.67
Needs follow-up89 m10019.923.030.020.493
33P22r95c
0.62
Needs follow-up295 m ▲9421.220.450.10.313
34P22qRmb
0.57
Needs follow-up257 m ▲10021.820.740.030.899
35C1GTPE5
0.57
Needs follow-up129 m9522.122.280.060.083
36C1GYVP5
0.53
Needs follow-up112 m10022.322.540.010.016
37C1GKJ45
0.52
Needs follow-up21 m10022.926.140.020.058
38orA6297
0.45
Needs follow-up62 m10020.623.830.020.513
39C1GKKV5
0.44
Needs follow-up31 m10023.325.340.020.055
40C46NWU1
0.41
Needs follow-up1 m10017.832.1100.060.167
41CAUTVXZ
0.41
Needs follow-up4 m10021.229.840.021.175
42SWAN26Q
0.40
Going stale23.5 km ▲6110.910.91426.346.718
43CARD7TZ
0.39
Needs follow-up2 m10030.731.340.021.141
44CAUTVTZ
0.36
Needs follow-up12 m10021.427.340.031.462
45C1GWP85
0.36
Needs follow-up107 m9321.622.690.110.052
46A11HZcx
0.35
Needs follow-up102 m10018.522.740.030.358
47A11HUyG
0.32
Needs follow-up8 m10019.528.340.070.419
48C1GYJ95
0.32
Needs follow-up155 m ▲8922.621.880.050.006
49C1GTXK5
0.32
Needs follow-up81 m8522.923.280.070.075
50C1GYW75
0.32
Needs follow-up26 m8022.625.740.010.014
51C1GR325
0.31
Needs follow-up170 m ▲8922.321.660.060.137
52CANPMAZ
0.29
Needs follow-up1.6 km ▲10022.416.740.021.384
53JAN3074
0.29
Needs follow-up214 m ▲10020.921.130.010.71
54CAUTVQZ
0.25
Needs follow-up19 m10023.226.440.021.603
55C1M0JJP
0.24
Needs follow-up5.1 km ▲10021.214.240.020.36
56X91216
0.23
Needs follow-up447 m ▲10019.619.530.030.304
57CARD7VZ
0.21
Needs follow-up17 m10021.826.640.022.145
58A11HAVq
0.21
Needs follow-up538 m ▲10019.419.140.040.082
59ZTF10Gb
0.18
Needs follow-up26 m10020.025.740.061.278
60P12r4oE
0.17
Needs follow-up339 m ▲8422.020.140.030.098
61ZTF10Gh
0.15
Needs follow-up1 m10018.432.680.020.586
62ZTF10Gf
0.14
Needs follow-up14 m10025.627.140.00.565
63P22rdnn
0.14
Needs follow-up235 m ▲9821.820.940.030.092
64P22r4mo
0.14
Needs follow-up123 m7821.522.340.030.056
65N117108
0.13
Going stale11 m10099.927.640.115.692
66A11FPxB
0.12
Needs follow-up2.8 km ▲10019.115.540.020.536
67CEVQWE2
0.12
Needs follow-up282 m ▲10021.120.530.010.528
68C1GVZG5
0.11
Needs follow-up235 m ▲6423.020.960.10.088
69P22rfgZ
0.11
Needs follow-up468 m ▲10021.119.460.120.376
70TKO0003
0.11
Needs follow-up10 m10018.527.740.060.78
71P12rfgP
0.11
Needs follow-up141 m ▲1021.222.020.010.116
72C1GQWZ5
0.11
Needs follow-up282 m ▲8422.220.560.10.126
73C1GWFF5
0.10
Needs follow-up214 m ▲6722.721.170.050.11
74P12r4oO
0.10
Needs follow-up195 m ▲6622.221.340.030.09
75C1GHX65
0.10
Needs follow-up246 m ▲10022.220.830.011.128
76P12r97k
0.09
Needs follow-up447 m ▲8821.819.560.090.281
77C1GLFL5
0.09
Needs follow-up204 m ▲7021.621.240.020.064
78X91229
0.09
Needs follow-up269 m ▲9621.420.630.020.855
79P12r4oN
0.09
Needs follow-up235 m ▲7422.320.940.030.49
80P12rf9w
0.09
Needs follow-up118 m5521.722.430.040.377
81P22qZTc
0.09
Needs follow-up7.1 km ▲10021.613.530.020.146
82P12r4oM
0.08
Needs follow-up5.1 km ▲7122.014.230.020.097
83CEUPDC2
0.07
Needs follow-up170 m ▲7721.921.630.020.184
84P12rfgJ
0.07
Needs follow-up178 m ▲7721.621.540.040.109
85P22rf9W
0.07
Needs follow-up490 m ▲9321.519.330.030.332
86P12r4oK
0.07
Needs follow-up3.9 km ▲6622.414.830.030.096
87P12qRUu
0.07
Needs follow-up339 m ▲7421.220.140.040.266
88P12qGDT
0.07
Needs follow-up490 m ▲7721.519.360.10.378
89P12r4oH
0.07
Needs follow-up4.1 km ▲7922.014.730.020.099
90C1MD3EP
0.07
Needs follow-up324 m ▲7323.320.240.020.04
91ZTF10Ge
0.07
Needs follow-up14 m10019.127.040.031.244
92P12r4oL
0.07
Needs follow-up2.0 km ▲7222.416.230.020.099
93P12r01o
0.06
Needs follow-up4.1 km ▲7822.214.730.020.11
94C1LT2DP
0.06
Going stale852 m ▲10021.218.140.0210.276
95P12r4oI
0.05
Needs follow-up677 m ▲6721.618.630.030.496
96CEVT4K2
0.05
Needs follow-up10.7 km ▲8421.312.680.120.304
97C1GKQ35
0.05
Needs follow-up355 m ▲7922.220.030.020.057
98P22rfeM
0.05
Needs follow-up852 m ▲5720.418.140.030.121
99P12pwoA
0.04
Needs follow-up2.7 km ▲3020.415.640.020.148
100P22oLCM
0.04
Needs follow-up538 m ▲7121.319.140.040.33
101orA6108
0.04
Needs follow-up1.3 km ▲7921.117.230.020.318
102P22rhmw
0.04
Needs follow-up513 m ▲8621.219.230.040.405
103P12qGDR
0.03
Needs follow-up538 m ▲7620.819.160.10.38
104P22rhq5
0.03
Needs follow-up538 m ▲8520.819.140.040.464
105A11InDq
0.03
Needs follow-up3.1 km ▲6214.315.340.040.135
106P12rf9u
0.03
Needs follow-up12.9 km ▲7120.812.230.030.384
107P12qfMj
0.03
Needs follow-up3.1 km ▲7320.815.340.030.429
108P22r96v
0.03
Needs follow-up1.8 km ▲4021.116.560.080.283

Model: lightgbm_dart_time_split_v4_first_posting trained on 1375 labeled objects. Use the scores to order follow-up, not as calibrated odds or impact risk. Green ≥0.8, amber ≥0.4.
Follow-up status: Needs follow-up = fresh single-night candidate, no one's tracked it yet · Being tracked = multi-night arc, seen recently · Going stale = not seen in >3 days, at risk of loss.

LIVE · THE SKY

Where they are right now

0h4h8h12h16h20h24h-60°-30°+0°+30°+60°ecliptic
likely real (≥0.8)uncertain (0.4–0.8)probably not (<0.4)estimated since last seenecliptic

Each dot is a candidate at its estimated position right now (right ascension and declination, the sky's longitude and latitude). Bigger and greener means more likely real; labels mark the top targets. The dashed pink line is the ecliptic, where ordinary main-belt asteroids cluster, so candidates far from it are more interesting. The faint solid line is each object's measured path across our snapshots; the dashed stretch is extrapolated from its last measured motion, assuming a straight line, so it grows less certain with time (dots fade after 7 days). That growing uncertainty is exactly how unconfirmed objects get lost. Hover a dot for details.

EVALUATION · ON CANDIDATES IT NEVER SAW

Is the model any good?

Yes, at ranking: on candidates it had never seen, posted after it was trained, it ranked real near-Earth objects above junk better than the digest2 score alone (ROC-AUC 0.93 vs 0.70). At a cut-off that keeps 95% of real ones, it threw out 65% of the junk; digest2 alone threw out 37%.

Full held-out evaluation: confusion matrices, confidence intervals, calibration

Trained on candidates discovered 2026-06-20.4–2026-09-19.2 (1031), tested once on the 344 later candidates (2026-09-19.2–2026-10-11.4, 212 real NEOs). The cut-off score was chosen on the training period to keep 95% of real NEOs, then applied unchanged.

real NEOs keptreal NEOs missedjunk keptjunk excludedNEO recalljunk excluded
Model20111468695%65%
digest2 score alone20210834995%37%

ROC-AUC 0.93 (95% CI 0.89–0.95) vs 0.70 for digest2 alone (difference CI +0.17 to +0.28). Calibration: Brier score 0.108 (lower is better; always guessing the base rate scores 0.258).

Does “0.8” mean 80%? (reliability table)
predictednmean predictedactually NEO
0.0–0.2840.090.11
0.2–0.4330.310.21
0.4–0.6300.480.67
0.6–0.8660.720.74
0.8–1.01310.880.97

Inputs are only what is known when a candidate is first posted. An earlier version also used how each candidate evolved on the page until it left, which leaks the outcome and inflated the score; see the evidence page.

CONTEXT · KNOWN IMPACT RISKS

Impact watch: NASA Sentry

objectsizeimpact oddswhenpalermo
29075 (1950 DA)1.3 km1 in 2,7532880-2880-0.95
101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36)490 m1 in 1,7492178-2290-1.4
(2008 JL3)29 m1 in 6,0312027-2122-2.38
(1979 XB)660 m1 in 1,174,3762056-2113-2.69
(2000 SG344)37 m1 in 3652069-2122-2.76
(2010 RF12)7 m1 in 102095-2122-2.96
(2007 FT3)341 m1 in 1,291,2652030-2119-3.0
(2022 PX1)120 m1 in 309,5022040-2040-3.07

The highest-ranked known impact risks, from JPL's Sentry monitor (as of 2026-10-13 00:08 UTC). Palermo scale is log₁₀ risk vs. background: −2 ≈ 1% of background risk; 0 would equal it — nothing known is close. None of these merit worry today; they merit tracking, which is the point of this whole pipeline: the dangerous one is the one nobody has found yet.

CONTEXT · WHAT HAPPENED TO PAST CANDIDATES

Outcome archive

classn
neo1602
designated_other769
was_not_confirmed508
does_not_exist169
was_not_a_minor_planet164
linked105
comet32
was_suspected_artificial19

"neo" = confirmed via discovery MPEC. Negatives accrue from live capture; designated_other are mostly main-belt identifications.

Tracked objects archive (74)
#?desig?P(real NEO)?~size?digest2?V?H?obs?arc d?unseen d?
1X89853
0.91
43 m10020.324.682.570.317
2P12nXcf
0.91
56 m10021.324.0171.021.428
3c1gkj45
0.91
47 m10021.824.482.220.447
4WMT0006
0.91
65 m9221.323.7201.030.505
5P12onNt
0.91
32 m10020.125.2101.850.561
6P12o4v9
0.90
186 m ▲8420.821.4163.160.355
7ZTF10G6
0.90
17 m7619.826.6161.760.436
8A11F0Hv
0.89
11 m8617.227.6185.140.295
9ZTF10Ft
0.89
30 m8118.025.4202.820.336
10A11Eq8v
0.89
30 m10018.525.4102.050.989
11P12o0Y1
0.88
118 m10021.322.41218.410.995
12P12omkz
0.87
59 m10021.323.9136.971.391
13P12nXce
0.84
178 m ▲10021.121.591.021.433
14S001621
0.84
162 m ▲10020.621.781.890.831
15W2nCdO
0.84
17 m7923.726.61419.011.535
16P12nXcA
0.81
102 m8020.022.7151.760.699
17CET8LV2
0.81
155 m ▲10020.621.878.950.226
18P22pL3X
0.81
98 m10021.922.8104.730.566
19CEQCZT2
0.77
257 m ▲10021.020.7335.971.326
20MRfB109
0.76
195 m ▲10021.421.363.070.926
21C46K1R1
0.71
1.6 km ▲10018.416.8851.120.19
22OP50643
0.70
129 m9621.722.21214.840.424
23MP95354
0.69
170 m ▲10021.621.664.10.946
24MRjH966
0.61
68 m10022.323.665.071.054
256JD4321
0.59
235 m ▲8219.820.9211.00.436
26P22qZVm
0.57
339 m ▲8720.520.1416.110.136
27MSoO353
0.47
68 m10022.323.664.061.098
28P12oZh2
0.39
355 m ▲2421.920.014652.040.21
29P22r91d
0.37
16 m7418.826.72523.110.038
30P12pwAX
0.37
135 m9421.222.171.190.352
31P22q6aD
0.37
490 m ▲10021.919.3111.90.319
32P22p4ww
0.32
129 m7220.122.2114.840.372
33P12p4HH
0.32
186 m ▲9121.521.41114.080.154
34C1GNVV5
0.23
282 m ▲5222.520.51115.010.199
35P12onSk
0.21
246 m ▲8721.320.861.060.259
36CEW3UY2
0.19
563 m ▲3121.219.025954.080.1
37P12qZLd
0.17
563 m ▲3021.619.08500.720.25
38MQJ9246
0.14
269 m ▲8522.020.6116.620.345
39MQM9799
0.13
408 m ▲6021.619.766.040.876
40P22orOo
0.12
309 m ▲9821.220.3144.140.849
41P12oVRq
0.11
408 m ▲8721.819.7718.920.372
42P12pfqZ
0.10
257 m ▲7221.220.775.00.344
43MSnM459
0.10
204 m ▲4322.321.266.050.934
44P22ooQe
0.10
892 m ▲1021.818.032689.260.28
45P12o4vF
0.09
468 m ▲10021.919.471.011.392
46P22pRo5
0.09
372 m ▲4121.119.997.10.285
47Sar2919
0.09
355 m ▲4221.220.0208.750.732
48P12ooQS
0.09
246 m ▲7421.820.81423.110.233
49P22nTNT
0.09
563 m ▲1021.019.0242.711.786
50P22nTLB
0.09
427 m ▲2122.219.6202.871.779
51gb00855
0.09
513 m ▲2720.419.2272.730.407
52P22pFdc
0.09
468 m ▲9221.019.4825.060.216
53MSkK094
0.08
112 m6921.922.544.081.616
54C1GFKW5
0.07
355 m ▲4121.520.01232.010.164
55P12oAWX
0.07
339 m ▲5821.020.1515.940.302
56MSoN867
0.07
324 m ▲3721.320.21314.480.994
57P12omkc
0.06
269 m ▲7121.020.672.020.388
58MRV8005
0.06
339 m ▲6920.820.146.090.593
59Arms083
0.06
3.7 km ▲8620.614.9122.250.433
60MAS0006
0.05
49.0 km ▲3520.39.36415.030.41
61P12oDgH
0.05
677 m ▲1021.818.672.80.19
62P22ooQf
0.05
892 m ▲1021.018.035764.030.3
63P22qMeV
0.04
490 m ▲4020.619.3103.090.601
64P12o4vl
0.04
709 m ▲10020.718.571.01.403
65P12qq3M
0.04
1.3 km ▲5520.617.282.20.214
66P12pEtX
0.04
742 m ▲7221.118.4621.030.794
67XA9yiXA
0.04
563 m ▲1020.019.046459.970.61
68RMM2026
0.04
589 m ▲3521.718.92826.530.306
69P22pL42
0.04
646 m ▲3420.318.71432.550.429
70P12onNw
0.04
13.5 km ▲3520.612.1173.161.405
71P22oEGl
0.03
1.4 km ▲5921.217.1828.030.731
72P12pBjI
0.03
513 m ▲6520.719.2826.930.348
73P12o4vm
0.03
563 m ▲4720.619.0142.131.396
74P12qMqy
0.03
538 m ▲1021.419.11527.150.299

Every candidate our capture has ever seen reach being tracked (a multi-night arc with recent follow-up), kept here so they aren't lost when they roll off the live NEO Confirmation Page and out of the queue above. 74 objects, ranked by model P(real NEO). Sourced from outputs/daily_vetting.csv; unseen-d is days since last observation.